Betting the Box Office - The Hills Have Eyes

The Box Office Receipts contracts aren't very active but opportunities do present themselves. One that looks good is The Hills Have Eyes to beat $16 million at the box office, a buy at 60. The movie has no competition in the genre and comparative films have shown that this can beat.

Here are the posted predictions:

BoxOfficeReport - $21m
BoxOfficeMojo - $18m
BoxOfficeGuru - $17m
BoxOfficeProphets - $15m

BoxOfficeMojo is the most trusted one, and BoxOfficeProphets seems to lowball as compared to all the other sites.

With the movie opening on 2,260 theaters, The Hills Have Eyes will have to hit $6,110 per theater to beat the number. Some comparative films in the genre:
Hostel - $8,909
Saw - $7,895
Saw 2 - $10,758
Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $9,315

Even without the LionsGate magic, the good buzz should carry this one to beat. The Trade: Buy up to 70 (60 offer is available now). There is very little liquidity on all of these unfortunately. Shaggy, even with Disney marketing, looks like it will miss but with a 20 bid its not worth the risk.