Oscar Bets

The best paragraph I've seen so far on Oscar predictions from the New York Times:

A big fat caveat before we get to the picks for nine major categories (after which you're on your own): Although the Oscars have all the trappings of an election, there is no polling. The only people who actually know what is on the minds of the 6,000 or so members of the academy are the accountants at PricewaterhouseCoopers, who hand-count the ballots at a secret location in the days running up to the Oscars. While there is a not-so-mini-industry of Oscar pundits, blogs and predictors, nobody knows anything — all the declaratory talk of this film "gaining momentum" and that one "weakening" is mostly conjured baloney pushed along by spinners for the respective films.

Having said that, the trickiest bet looks to be Best Picture, with LA centered Crash gaining on Tradesports. PSH is a lock for Best Actor, the idea that Heath has a chance is ludicrous. Felicity Huffman, not a chance! Reese is a sure thing.

Sunday should be especially good for heavily fading the long shots, no need to worry about margin issues.