Why the Cheney Resigning Contract Trades so High - Assassination Politics??

The last trade on the CHENEY.RESIGN.DEC06 was at 17 with the market giving close to a 1 in 6 chance of it paying off by the end of this year. With nearly no blowback from the shooting incident and no support for resignation why is this contract trading at its current level?

It is essential to note with this contract that it can be triggered by reasons other than resignation. From the Rules the contract will expire at 100 if, “There is an official White House announcement reporting the resignation, retirement or departure of the named individual from his current position by the time/date specified in the contract or if the individual has factually departed his current position noted above.” If he leaves the office for any reason this contract will expire at 100.

If there had been a contract for all 46 US VP’s for the full term, this contract would have paid off 18 times or nearly 40%. The most common reason: Nine succeeded to the presidency (after the president died, was assassinated, or resigned). The next most common reason that it would have paid off is the seven times that sitting Vice Presidents have died in office. Only two Vice Presidents have ever resigned, the last being Spiro Agnew in 1973 and before that John C. Calhoun who left to achieve power and prestige by becoming a senator.

The contact shouldn’t just be viewed as the chances of Cheney resigning, but of Cheney resigning, Cheney dying, or Bush dying since any of them will trigger the contract. 17% still seems high, but if Cheney has another heart attack I recommend putting your best clients on it.