NFP Forecast Divergence

Previously the CME NFP auction came out to be nearly even with the Economics estimates for the number. This is what was expected with the useful information being the potential distribution of the number. This month the numbers are not even close.

May
Economists' Consensus – 200,000
CME Auction – 200,500
Actual – 126,000

June
Economists' Consensus – 170,000
CME Auction – 171,000
Actual – 75,000

Very close both times, although neither hit the real number.

July
Economists' Consensus – 175,000
CME Auction – 205,000
Actual - ???

With the numbers differing significantly we'll know 8:30 am tomorrow which was more accurate.