Is the TradeSports GOP House Control Contract Falling on Foley?

Is scandal involving former Rep. Foley the only reason for the contract 10+ point decline in less than a week?




Many bloggers seem to think so, but other events the last week have likely played a larger factor.

1. Gaming Law – This law was snuck into an impotent port security bill and and passed on Friday. Although the House passed this in mid-July it seemed unlikely to go through until very recently. Is it unreasonable to think a law that has very little support and criminalized the actions of million of votes won’t have any backlash? People’s first instinct is to throw the bums out.

2. The War Gets More Unpopular - Woodword’s State of Denial – This scathing picture of the current administration war incompetence is now #1 on Amazon. As the Liberman defeat showed, not supporting the war in Iraq is no longer toxic; the anti-war spirit could play a factor in the upcoming election. At any rate one would hope that the voters find this topic more important than another political sex scandal. Rumsfeld, the main villain, has seen his resignation contract go up nearly 10 points since the publicity blitz started.



3. The Foley Cover-up – Will Hastert resign? Did he give Foley too much room to avoid seeming homophobic? *yawn* Talk about things that don’t matter...

It’s too early to know for sure, but House control looks like a dear heat.