February Non-Farm Payroll

Economists' consensus: 100,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 82,500
ADP: 57,000

None of the three numbers have really been able to hit NFP consistently but they are usually all wrong in the same direction. For example in January the estimates were:

Economists' consensus: 160,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 134,800
ADP: 152,000

The actual number came out at 110K - below all the estimates.

In December the numbers were:

Economists' consensus: 100,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 82,000
ADP: -40,000

This was a big upside surprise at 206K – all of the estimates were low.