Thursday, November 01, 2007

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for October

Consensus: 82,000
ADP: 106,000


Last: 110,000

DailyFX on how to play the number:

Trying to trade a long dollar position on the employment data should be done conservatively considering the steady downtrend the currency. On the fundamental front we will look for consistency across the various indicators: a strong NFP number for October, an upward revision to September, perhaps a downtick in the jobless rate and sustained rebound in the annual earnings report. Of course, the headline number and revision take precedence, but the fewer points of support for the dollar, the more suspect dollar momentum will be. On a strong fundamental release and a green five-minute candle, we will look to take a short EURUSD position on two lots at the close of the 12:35 GMT bar

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