Friday, February 01, 2008

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for January

Consensus: 70k
Range: 5-160K
ADP: 130k

Last: 18,000

DailyFX on the number:
Of the 7 leading indicators for non-farm payrolls that have been released ahead of the NFP number, only 5 favor stronger job growth. The biggest reason to believe there will be a strong rebound is the ADP survey which reported 130k private sector jobs in the month of January. ADP has overestimated private sector job growth in the past 2 months, but directionally they tend to be fairly accurate. Help wanted ads also increased slightly and the four week moving average of jobless claims dropped from 343k to 325k.

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