Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for July

Consensus: -75k
ADP: 9k

Last: -62k

Just like in May the ADP and consensus number diverged. Last time the consensus was closer. But does it really matter?

Will NFP continue to be such a big market mover, or will it being to take a back seat to inflation numbers?

To see how the market has reacted to the number vs expectation DailyFX.com has a writeup on the last three months of NFPs.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for April

Consensus: -78k
ADP: 10k

Last: -80k

DailyFX on the number:

Nearly everyone in the market seems to agree that non-farm payrolls will fall for the fourth month in a row, but will the job losses be more severe than what has been reported over the past 3 months? Job growth has been a sore point for the US economy for sometime and in March, the labor market reported its worst performance since March 2003. Analysts are currently looking for a mild improvement, but we believe that the conditions in the US labor market will worsen. In fact, non-farm payrolls could have even drop by 100k last month given the level of layoff announcements that have been announced.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for March

Consensus: -50k
ADP: 8k

Last: -63k

DailyFX on the number:

Now more than ever, the change in non-farm payrolls for the month of March will determine the outlook for the US dollar and US monetary policy. All but one of our leading indicators for non-farm payrolls point to another month of job losses, which means that a negative print alone will not be enough to drive the US dollar lower. The dollar has been rebounding in the days leading up to the non-farm payrolls report and interest rate expectations for the FOMC meeting at the end of this month are strongly skewed in favor of a 25bp versus 50bp cut. We have seen these expectations change on a dime in reaction to incoming economic data and given the fact that the non-farm payrolls report is the most market moving indicator for the US dollar, there is no question that a weak release could alter market expectations significantly.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for February

Consensus: 30k
ADP: -8k

Last: -17k

The most recent fundamental releases have been coming out to the downside:

The consensus compiled by Thomson's IFR Markets indicates economists are expecting payrolls to have increased 25,000 and unemployment to have increased to 5 pct. Since the consensus was finalised last Friday, however, there has been a host of poor economic indicators released in the week.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for January

Consensus: 70k
Range: 5-160K
ADP: 130k

Last: 18,000

DailyFX on the number:

Of the 7 leading indicators for non-farm payrolls that have been released ahead of the NFP number, only 5 favor stronger job growth. The biggest reason to believe there will be a strong rebound is the ADP survey which reported 130k private sector jobs in the month of January. ADP has overestimated private sector job growth in the past 2 months, but directionally they tend to be fairly accurate. Help wanted ads also increased slightly and the four week moving average of jobless claims dropped from 343k to 325k.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for October

Consensus: 82,000
ADP: 106,000

Last: 110,000

DailyFX on how to play the number:

Trying to trade a long dollar position on the employment data should be done conservatively considering the steady downtrend the currency. On the fundamental front we will look for consistency across the various indicators: a strong NFP number for October, an upward revision to September, perhaps a downtick in the jobless rate and sustained rebound in the annual earnings report. Of course, the headline number and revision take precedence, but the fewer points of support for the dollar, the more suspect dollar momentum will be. On a strong fundamental release and a green five-minute candle, we will look to take a short EURUSD position on two lots at the close of the 12:35 GMT bar

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for September

Consensus: 100,000
ADP: 58,000

The DailyFX outlook:

Since the beginning of the week, the US dollar has been quietly recovering on the expectation that payrolls will be firm. If job growth was indeed greater than 100k, then we expect the dollar to recover further. However should job growth rise by less than 70k, we could see the dollar fall back to its record lows.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions for August

Consensus: 108,000
ADP: 38,000

Just like last month there is a large divergence between the two estimates.

****Update****
Actual NFP: -4,000

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Betting Predictions for July

Consensus: 127,000
ADP: 48,000

This is one of the larger divergences between the two estimates of NFP.

Dailyfx isn't optimistic about an upside surprise:

Risk aversion has skyrocketed and the world has been pushed into a global credit crunch. The only thing that can bring back optimism and revive carry trades is a report of strong job growth in the month of July. Unfortunately the divergences in the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls make it very difficult to figure out whether non-farm payrolls will be strong or weak.

****Update****
Actual NFP: 92,000

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Betting Predictions for June

Consensus: 125,000
ADP: 150,000

Midasoracle.org reported and almost no one else did, the CME has discontinued its economic derivatives trading.

Unless a substitute is found we will continue to follow NFP using the economist estimates and ADP employment report.

NFP - Non Farm Payroll Predictions May 2007

Consensus: 130,000
CME Derivative Auction: 121,200
ADP: 97,000

Once again the CME number is in the middle. Last month the CME was very close to the actual.

****UPDATE: Actual NFP 157K - Consensus beat CMS and ADP estimates

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Betting Predictions for April

Consensus: 115,000
CME Derivative Auction: 88,800
ADP: 64,000

Last month all the estimates were low. The CME’s estimate was the closest – barely - and was still far from the actual.

****Update*****
ACTUAL: 88,000

CME was very close.

March Non-Farm Payroll Estimates

Economists' consensus: 120,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 121,600
ADP: 106,000

NY Posts Crudele nails NFPs- The only sure bet is this: no matter what the number, the idiots will be on TV saying how great it is for the country.

*****UPDATE:

NFPs Actual: 180,000

February Non-Farm Payroll

Economists' consensus: 100,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 82,500
ADP: 57,000

None of the three numbers have really been able to hit NFP consistently but they are usually all wrong in the same direction. For example in January the estimates were:

Economists' consensus: 160,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 134,800
ADP: 152,000

The actual number came out at 110K - below all the estimates.

In December the numbers were:

Economists' consensus: 100,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 82,000
ADP: -40,000

This was a big upside surprise at 206K – all of the estimates were low.

January Non Farm Payroll

Economists' consensus: 160,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus: 134,800
ADP: 152,000

The BLS's Birth/Death estimates will likely put this low. Here is what happened the last three months when the number came out:

December Non Farm Payroll - CME is showing it low

Economists' consensus - 100,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus - 82,000
ADP - -40,000

I'm taking the under on this one - only gov't jobs can save this from being a total disaster.

NFP

Economists' consensus - 110,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus - 85,200

Once again there is divergence. The previous numbers had the CME estimate on the low side of the economist forecast with the CME numbers being closer to the actual.

NFP Forecast - October Employment Numbers

Last month both the consensus numbers and the CME were on the high side when the figure came out at 51,000, less than half the estimates.

This month we are seeing a big divergence again in Economics consensus vs CME participants. Normally they are very close. They last time they diverged this much was in July when the CME numbers were on the high side and the Economists consensus ended up being closer.

For Octobers numbers here are the estimates:

Economists' consensus - 123,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus - 102,000
ADP - 128,000

Previous posts on this topic:
October - http://nastybrutishandtall.com/2006/10/fundamental-event-of-week-non-farm.html
August - http://nastybrutishandtall.com/2006/08/nfp-forecasts.html
July - http://nastybrutishandtall.com/2006/07/nfp-forecast-divergence.html

Fundamental Event of the Week: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Predictions

Consensus: 120,000
CME Derivative Auction: 120,030
ADP: 78,000

What the market needs is a “Goldilocks” Non-Farm Payroll report. Too high could signal that future rate decreases that the market is counting on will be less likely to occur. If the number comes out too low traders will see it as slow down beyond what was already priced in.

Here are previous posts on the topic:

August: NFP Forecasts
July: NFP Forecast Divergence

Although TradeSports lists the contract, there hasn’t been any volume on it since US traders were banned from trading on US Economic numbers.

NFP Forecasts

Economists' consensus - 142,000
CME Auction Market participants' consensus - 144,480

Once again the CME auction is on the highside. Last month both numbers were skewed by the ADP report and diverged for the first time. The economists concensus ended up being more accurate, but not by much.

The ADP estimate is more in line this time so they have probably changed the formula after last months disaster.

NFP Forecast Divergence

Previously the CME NFP auction came out to be nearly even with the Economics estimates for the number. This is what was expected with the useful information being the potential distribution of the number. This month the numbers are not even close.

May
Economists' Consensus – 200,000
CME Auction – 200,500
Actual – 126,000

June
Economists' Consensus – 170,000
CME Auction – 171,000
Actual – 75,000

Very close both times, although neither hit the real number.

July
Economists' Consensus – 175,000
CME Auction – 205,000
Actual - ???

With the numbers differing significantly we'll know 8:30 am tomorrow which was more accurate.

No More Economic Number Contracts

The Trade Sports Economic Number Contracts are down to only year end Fed Funds rates.

Previously they had contracts for all the major fundamental releases. No more. This week they didn't post new contracts for any of them. With the importance of the once mighty NFP severely diminished and with serious traders trading NFP contracts on the CME, it is unlikely that Trade Sports will bring them back.

No Time For Sleep

This is going to be a fantastic week to be paying attention to the market. Bernanke, silver, GOOG earnings and NFP! Here are the bets to look at.

Dow close on Tradesports looks like a good short. The 10,900 is trading at close to even money now and has everything going against it; new fed chief, horrible GDP numbers, and a consolidation after last weeks schizophrenic rally. Sell this for end of the week close if you can get more and the 11,000 contract for end of the month.

The biggest market mover this week is the employment situation numbers coming out on Friday. The Non-Farm Payroll release looks over change in payrolls, hourly earnings, and the actual unemployment rate. Ignore the unemployment rate, everyone else does. The trade on this one is to fade the high end of the estimates for payroll growth. With consensus at 215,000 jobs created, sell anything above it but use caution. This one is extremely volatile.